Fade Route - Another Week in the Green

Another week of Fade Route, another week in the green thanks to a 5-3 performance. Celebrations are over, time to keep the streak alive. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Let’s start with our three losses from last week. It turns out that Georgia can move the ball and score without tight-end phenom Brock Bowers. Didn’t help our case with Florida not being able to defend whatsoever.

Moving on: the despicable offensive performance by the Utah Utes. How you manage to score once at home against a team that let Washington State score 24 is beyond me (I guess Cougars QB Cam Ward really is that guy?).

Let’s close out with our only NFL loss of the week, The Garbagè Coach Bowl: the Chicago Bears at the Los Angeles Chargers. This is the second time where we have had a great scoring first half, promising to be on track for the over, only to end in an extremely low-scoring, turnover-heavy second half. Lesson learned.

Now for the fun part: our five wins from last week. The Wisconsin defense played admirably against the most productive offense in the Big 10, securing two interceptions.

Louisville covered with extreme ease against a stumbling Duke team that looked dysfunctional and unable to move the ball with a battered quarterback. Just like we predicted.

The Bengals are back to Super-Bowl-contender form. The bye week did wonders for Joe Burrow and the offense. They were the better team on both sides of the ball.

Can’t say that the Jaguars/Steelers game was entertaining. But we can definitely say it was a moneymaker. Kenny Picket or Mitch Trubisky, doesn’t matter. The Steelers’ defense is the only reason that the team has won a single game.

The under was also a win with the Chiefs in Mile High. Maybe not in the direction that we may have anticipated, but when it comes to betting, a win is a win.

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports leagues (ones that I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order. All lines according to when I wrote and published this. Lines subject to change.

NFL

Miami Dolphins (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) (Line: KC -1.0 O/U: 50.5)

Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2) (Line: BAL -6.0 O/U: 44.5)

Buffalo Bills (6-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) (Line: CIN -2.0 O/U: 49.5)

NCAA Football

No. 23 Kansas (6-2) at No. 7 Texas (7-1) (Line: TEX -4 O/U: 49.5)

No. 12 Missouri (7-1) at No. 2 Georgia (8-0) (Line: UGA -15.5 O/U: 54.5)

No. 9 Oklahoma (7-1) at No. 22 Oklahoma State (6-2) (Line: OU -5.5 O/U: 60.5)

No. 14 LSU (6-2) at No. 8 Alabama (7-1) (Line: ALA -3 O/U: 60.5)

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a 10-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) (Line: PIT -2.5 O/U: 36.5)

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (2-5) (Line: GB -3.0 O/U: 38.5)

NCAA Football

No. 11 Penn State (7-1) at Maryland (5-3) (Line: PSU -8.5 O/U: 50.5)

No. 16 Oregon State (6-2) at Colorado (4-4) (Line: ORST -13.5 O/U: 62.5)

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens: As good as the Ravens look, I think 6 points is a lot to give for a Seahawks squad that has a legitimate chance to win the NFC West (Who would’ve predicted that 3 weeks ago?). With the addition of Leonard Williams, via the New York Giants, to beef up the defensive line, the Seahawks are ready for the battle ahead and enter the Super Bowl hopeful discussion. This is going to be a one-score dogfight. Buckle up.

Seahawks +6

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 22 Oklahoma State: This may be the last game of the Bedlam Series for a while, a rivalry that is iconic in our eyes despite Oklahoma leading the series all time with a 91–19–7 record. Oklahoma hasn’t looked like a top 10 team in the last few weeks, with a narrow victory over UCF and their first loss of the season against Kansas. Oklahoma State has been playing exceptional football, now on a 4 game win streak. The Cowboys should keep this a close game at home, if not win outright to close out this long-time conference rivalry.

Oklahoma State +5.5

OnlyOvers

No. 5 Washington at No. 20 USC: I know we have been known to throw the term “Scorefest” around quite loosely, but any game involving the Trojans defense deserves that label. In their last 5 games they have allowed 49 points to Cal, 34 to Utah, 48 to Notre Dame, 43 to Arizona, and 41 to Colorado. Now, they are up against the most prolific offense they have played to date. Michael Penix Jr. is going to have a field day and continue his Heisman-caliber season.

Over 76.5

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are officially back. Like we said earlier, Joe Burrow looks to be at full health and back to his dominating ways. The other Joe looked pretty good too: Joe Mixon ran for 87 yards and a touchdown, not bad against one of the best defensive lines in football. This week they play a much worse defense in the overhyped Buffalo Bills, points should be easy to come by. Josh Allen will pitch in as well. Hammer the over.

Over 49.5

Favorite of the Week

Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss: Not entirely sure I understand why the line is so low here. Ole Miss is one of the premier offenses in college football and are able to put points up in a hurry (top 10 in points per game). Sure, Texas A&M has been in some close games against good teams, but they don’t have a noteworthy win in our opinion. Their defense won’t be enough to slow down the Rebels’ onslaught.

Ole Miss -3

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: Here is another line where we think a team is getting a little too much credit. The Panthers are coming off their only win of the season, and while they have a decent defense (decent, not good), I think the Colts have enough offensive talent to easily overcome it. Between Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss, at least one, if not more, will have a day. Don’t overthink it.

Colts -2.5

Shameful Under

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans:  Any Todd Bowles coached team is guaranteed to be the most boring team you have ever encountered. Good defense sure, but incredibly boring. Expect nothing different from this game; good defense against rookie quarterback. Or Baker Mayfield against a good defense. Same thing. Not exactly a barn burner.

Under 39.5

No. 15 Notre Dame at Clemson: A battle between two let-down teams this season. While 7-2 is a great record, it is certainly a let-down for a championship hopeful squad. On the other side, can’t come up with an excuse for Clemson at 4-4. Their offense has been terrible this season, coming in at 64th in the nation for points per game. Oh, and they are going up against a 10th ranked defense in Notre Dame. Never a good sign.

Under 44.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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