Fade Route - The Show Goes On

Barely missed out on another positive performance this week, finishing with a 3-4-1 performance. But, we don’t linger, we don’t complain. We keep battling. On to the next one. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Like always, let’s start with the picks that didn’t turn out so well. We may have been wrong about the Buccaneers at the Texans being a low-scoring game. But, the L was a little easier to swallow knowing Stroud had the best rookie QB performance of all time.

A Shameful Under pick always feels like a lose-lose. You either get to watch a boring, defensive slog and win your bet, or watch an offensive shootout and hate yourself for betting the under. The latter was the case in the Clemson/Notre Dame game.

If we bet against the Ravens again this season, you are fully justified in unsubscribing from Fade Route. That is all that needs to be said about that game.

We were right about the Bengals taking this game. We were not right about the point total, however, thanks to some untimely turnovers (including the Josh Allen pick of the week). Jamarr Chase’s injury was also an unfortunate factor. We wish Uno a speedy recovery.

Moving on from the loss section, but not quite to the wins, we get to our only push of the week. It was indeed a Rebel onslaught as we predicted, but Ole Miss let Texas A&M hang in the game with their offense as well, managing only a push on a minus three spread.

Now for our favorite part, the dubs. The Colts didn’t beat the Panthers so much as Bryce Young lost. Someone check in on the Panther’s front office after this one.

You know what game was a Scorefest? You know. USC versus Washington. Michael Penix Jr. versus Caleb Williams. We got the Heisman shootout we expected and deserved. This is the kind of game that makes college football so special. Scorefest for the ages.

What a final installation of Bedlam, the iconic Big 12 conference and state rivalry between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State not only covered, but won outright (as we predicted in last week’s email). Guess they punished Oklahoma for skipping out on the Big 12 next year.

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports and their respective leagues (ones that I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order. All lines are according to when I wrote and published this. Lines are subject to change.

NFL

Houston Texans (4-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) (Line: CIN -7.0 O/U: 47.5)

San Francisco 49ers (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) (Line: SF -3.0 O/U: 45.5)

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2) (Line: BAL -6.0 O/U: 38.5)

NCAA Football

No. 3 Michigan (9-0) at No. 10 Penn State (8-1) (Line: MICH -4.5 O/U: 44.5)

No. 18 Utah (7-2) at No. 5 Washington (9-0) (Line: WASH -9.5 O/U: 51.5)

No. 9 Ole Miss (8-1) at No. 2 Georgia (6-2) (Line: UGA -10.5 O/U: 57.5)

USC (6-3) at No. 6 Oregon (8-1) (Line: ORE -15 O/U: 73.5)

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at New England Patriots (2-7) (Line: IND -1.5 O/U: 43.5)

New York Jets (4-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) (Line: NYJ -0.5 O/U: 36.5)

Carolina Panthers (1-7) at Chicago Bears (2-7) (Line: CHI -3.5 O/U: 38.5)

NCAA Football

No. 13 Tennessee (7-2) at No. 14 Missouri (7-2) (Line: TENN -1 O/U: 58.5)

Duke (6-3) at No. 24 North Carolina (7-2) (Line: UNC -14.5 O/U: 50.5)

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings: Josh Dobbs may be one of the most elite relief quarterbacks of all time. What he managed to accomplish with no knowledge of the playbook, no snaps with the offensive line and barely knowing the names of his receivers is a testament to both Dobbs and the talent of this Vikings offense. The Saints were entirely unimpressive in last week’s win over the Bears. How forcing 5 turnovers translates to only winning by 7 is hard to comprehend. Dobbs is inevitable. Skol, Vikings.

Vikings +2.5

Miami at No. 4 Florida State: Another installment in a classic Florida in-state rivalry. Miami may have been dismissed as a threat since they have become a 3-loss team, but their average margin of defeat has been under 10 points. The Seminoles also tend to play down to their opponent’s level. Florida State will win this game, but we expect it to be a close rivalry battle.

Miami +14.5

OnlyOvers

No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State: We realize that on paper, this may seem like an extremely stupid take. This is the number 1 defense in the nation facing off against the number 3 defense. Here’s why you should throw that out the window and hammer the over. Michigan’s strength of schedule has come under question (among other things) many times this season, and justifiably so. Not to say their defense isn’t good, it’s great, just maybe not as dominant as it may seem. Drew Allar and the Penn State offense seems to be moving in the right direction as well, following the dominant win over Maryland. We don’t expect this to be an all-time shootout, but enough points will be scored to hit the over. Bookmark it.

Over 44.5

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars: Both teams are coming off of bye weeks with fresh legs and giving injured players the chance to rest and get back to full health. We saw this before with the Cincinnati Bengals. These are two explosive offensives with supposedly elite defenses. The 49ers secondary was exposed by Burrow and the Bengals and we expect it to be pushed to the limit once again by Trevor Lawrence and crew. The Jaguars’ defense also allowed the Derek Carr-led Saints to score 24 points. It's tough to explain that one away. Throw 2 elite running backs, CMC and Etienne, into the mix and you have a recipe for scoring.

Over 45.5

Favorite of the Week

No. 8 Alabama at Kentucky: Never count out a Nick Saban-coached team. Since the home loss against the Texas Longhorns, Saban has switched around the tactics to take advantage of his team’s strengths instead of focusing on the gaps, such as utilizing quarterback Jalen Milroe’s mobility and scrambling. The Crimson Tide defense is always a threat as well. We wouldn’t be surprised if this team won out and challenged Georgia for the SEC title.

Alabama -10

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Twice now, we have been on the wrong side of history, betting against the Baltimore Ravens. This is the most complete team in the NFL. There is no denying that anymore. On top of an all-around elite defense, they may have found another offensive weapon in rookie running back Keaton Mitchell. Helps having arguably the best offensive line as well. Oh, and let’s not forget former MVP Lamar Jackson.

Ravens -6

Shameful Under

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers:  Shouldn’t even have to explain ourselves with this one after the pitiful performance by the Packers and the legitimacy of this Steelers’ defense and the very real home-field advantage at Acrisure Stadium. Won’t be a pretty one to watch, but we can still make some cash off it at least, right? Also, Jordan Love is not that guy.

Under 39.5

USC at No. 6 Oregon: We may have been spoiled with a Heisman shootout between USC and Washington last week, but don’t fall for this trap and expect another one. This Duck’s defensive unit is a whole lot better than what Caleb Williams went up against last week (Oregon is ranked 11th in the nation in points per game allowed, compared to Washington sitting at 48th). Oregon is a more complete football team and should prove to be a problem for this USC offense. Oregon’s defensive front is going to have a field day with the inadequate Trojan’s offensive line. Introducing: the Sackfest.

Under 73.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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