Thank God It's Bowl Season

Last week, we went 2-2 on our NFL picks, splitting and breaking even. Sadly, there was not much college football going on outside of the Army/Navy game. But, Bowl Season is upon us. It’s always a better time with both the NFL and college football firing. Let’s have a week. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Like always, let’s start with the picks that didn’t turn out so well. The Lions’ defense struggled like we thought it would, but the Detroit offense being so incapable of moving the ball and even getting a first down is not something we predicted. Lions were never even close to winning this game, let alone covering.

The Eagles were yet another letdown Super Bowl contender from last week. You can’t win games when the defense is unable to make a stop and your offense turns the ball over that much. It’s pretty simple and clear-cut. Philly will more than likely win the division, but they have a lot to figure out if they want to win any playoff games.

Now for everyone’s (and our) favorite part, the dubs. The over in the Lions/Bears game managed to hit by half a point, somehow. This is more so due to the Bears coming out firing than anything Detroit did. Fields is looking more and more like a quarterback that belongs in this league as a starter.

Man, we have to admit that when we said the Vikings and Raiders game was going to be low-scoring, we had no idea that there would be a total of THREE points in the entire game. An absolute stinker of a game. The Dobbsanity run is over for good.

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports and their respective leagues (ones I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order. All lines are according to when I wrote and published this. Lines are subject to change.

NFL

Denver Broncos (7-6) at Detroit Lions (9-4) (Line: DET -4.0 O/U: 47.5)

Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6) (Line: BUFF -2.5 O/U: 50.5)

Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5) (Line: BAL -3.0 O/U: 42.5)

NCAA Football

New Mexico State (10-4) at Fresno State (8-4) (Line: NMSU -3.5 O/U: 51.5)

UCLA (7-5) at Boise State (8-5) (Line: UCLA -4.0 O/U: 49.5)

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

Houston Texans (7-6) at Tennessee Titans (5-8) (Line: TEN -3.0 O/U: 37.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-6) (Line: IND -1.5 O/U: 42.5)

NCAA Football

Nothing. Bowl Season, baby. We bet them all.

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions: The Detroit Lions have a lot to figure out if they want to be a legitimate threat in the postseason. One of the major issues plaguing their offense in recent weeks has been their turnovers. Goff has had 7 interceptions and 6 fumbles in the last 7 games. You can not make that many mistakes against a good team and expect to win games. This week, they face off against the second-ranked defense in the league when it comes to takeaways. Going to get rough quickly if they are unable to secure the ball.

Broncos +4

California at Texas Tech: This Cal offense has been capable of moving the ball all year, no matter the level of competition played. This Texas Tech defense is a lot lower caliber compared to teams such as Oregon, Washington, Utah, and UCLA. The Pac-12 was a gauntlet this year and will have been more than enough to get the Golden Bears ready for this bowl game.

Cal +3

OnlyOvers

New Mexico State at Fresno State: Both teams have found a lot of success offensively with both of their quarterbacks, Diego Pavia and Mikey Keene. Explosive plays have become expected from the squads. Scorefest alert.

Over 51.5

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have somehow managed to draft not only one but two instant-impact rookies on the offensive side of the ball. Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are legitimate threats against any defense as we saw last week against the Ravens. The offense is more than capable of putting up numbers. It will be even easier for them this week as they line up against the worst defense in the league in the Washington Commanders.

Over 50.5

Favorite of the Week

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams: Double dipping in games has become a habit for us at this point, but if it keeps hitting, why stop now? The Rams will not be taking any weeks off as they continue to make their case for the playoffs. With Ron Rivera on his way out soon, Washington seems to be in a race for a top pick for next year’s draft. Rams by a whole lot.

Rams -6.5

New Mexico State at Fresno State: We can’t say enough about how fun Diego Pavia is to watch. An absolutely electric college quarterback, Pavia has been performing week in and week out, in both passing and rushing. He led this team to a win against Auburn. He is more than capable of leading this team past Fresno State. Aggies on top.

New Mexico State -3.5

Shameful Under

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: Betting the Raiders under last week worked out wonderfully for us. Expect more of the same this week. Thursday Night Football quarterback matchups have been abysmal this year, and it’s hard to get excited about this one. Easton Stick vs. AOC/Garopollo/Hoyer. Doesn’t matter who the Raiders start, this one is going to be another stinker. Oh, and no Keenan Allen either. Yikes. Hammer the under.

Under 34.5

UCLA at Boise State: This pick is based solely on the UCLA defense. Stacked with talent, they finish the season in the top 15 nationally in terms of yards allowed. A major accomplishment that would have meant a lot more if their offense wasn’t incapable of scoring or even getting first downs. Boise State has been fun to watch recently, but this will be one of the toughest defenses they have played all year.

Under 49.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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