There’s no easy way to say it: we got bent over and absolutely railed last week. 1-7 is our toughest week of all time. But, as we like to say here at Fade Route, it’s all about the rally. Let’s have a week. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Like always, let’s start with the picks that didn’t turn out so well. Brace yourself, because there were a lot last week. The Lions are good at home and Denver may actually just be a not-so-good football team. Sean Payton has made them look a lot better than they are. I don’t think anyone in the league could have called the absolute slaughter the Chargers faced against the Raiders. That under was destined for failure after that first quarter. Staley finally got sacked after his team gave up on him in primetime.

Multiple turnovers on promising drives killed all hope of the over cashing pretty early on in the Rams/Commanders game.

Cal was not able to move the ball, even though they were pretty successful at it all season long. Bowl season is weird. Diego Pavia was absolutely shut down all game long, making the over and the New Mexico State spread doomed picks.

UCLA dominated Boise State, scoring whenever they felt like it. Once again, bowl season is weird. That offense struggled all season long, but Boise made it look like Washington.

Now for everyone’s (and our) favorite part, the dubs. Or in this case, the single dub. The Rams covered thanks to some poor game management by Ron Rivera and a serviceable effort by Stafford and the Rams offense.

On to this week’s action.

New this Week

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: Last week went a long way in exposing the Denver Broncos. Turnovers have stopped falling Denver’s way and their defense no longer looks elite and this Patriots team is better than its record suggests. Every game has been a relatively close affair, as their defense keeps them in it every single week. This is going to be a one-score contest, count on it.

Patriots +6.5

Utah at Northwestern: The outcome of the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl (not exactly an iconic bowl name) is going to come down to recent results and momentum. Northwestern comes in on a great stretch of games, with the last 7 being wins or one-score losses. Wildcats keeping it a close one this week.

Northwestern +6.5

OnlyOvers

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears: The Chicago Bears have been looking like a legitimate football team in recent weeks. Not counting their 4th quarter implosion and loss to one of the league’s best defenses in the Browns last week. Justin Fields can move the ball pretty effectively and should have no trouble this week. This Cardinals defense isn’t exactly elite either, sitting at 31st in points allowed. Kyler Murray is good for a few points as well, expect them to chip in and help the over hit.

Over 43.5

Georgia State at Utah State: Two defenses that could not stop anyone this year. Utah State and Georgia State rank 105th and 120th in the country in terms of points per game, respectively. Outrageous and terrible. Neither should have trouble scoring on the other side. Going to be a scorefest in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Over 59.5

Favorite of the Week

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: The Browns seemed to have made an incredible decision that the Jets probably should’ve made: bringing in Joe Flacco to lead the team offensively. Paired with the elite defense led by Myles Garrett, Cleveland had been a formidable force. It is starting to look like CJ Stroud will miss another game this week, and I’m not liking Case Keenum’s chances of squeezing out another win.

Browns -2.5

South Florida at Syracuse: The South Florida Bulls have put up a respectable offensive season, but their defense has been far from dominant. Syracuse had a much more balanced approach with a fairly efficient offense and a much better defense than USF. Expecting them to score just enough and limit the Bulls’ scoring efforts.

Syracuse -3

Shameful Under

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins: On paper, this seems like it would be a high-scoring affair. But, examining both sides closer says otherwise. The Dallas defense has been a top 5 unit this season. Miami’s defense has improved every week, becoming a quiet story in the Dolphins’ success this year. On the other side of the ball, Miami will have a tough time moving the ball if Tyreek Hill misses another game. Even with him in, nearly the entirety of the Miami offensive line has been banged up this year. Hammer the under.

Under 49.5

Troy at Duke: Two elite defenses square off in the 76 Birmingham Bowl. Duke sits at 22nd in the nation, and Troy at 10th. No Riley Leonard limits this Duke offense as it has in his absence all year long. All signs point to the under.

Under 44.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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