Fade Route - First Week in the Books

The first week of Fade Route is in the books. We finished a respectable 2-1-1. Time to clock back in for week 2. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Let’s start off with the obvious one we know you want to hear about. The Lions at the Ravens. This was the Raven’s coming out party. They have officially announced to the rest of the NFL: “We are here and we are Super Bowl contenders”. Not only did they completely embarrass and dominate a team, but they did it against one of the premier defenses in the league. Duly noted: do not doubt the Ravens and Lamar again.

Turning our eyes to the other NFL game on our slate last weekend: nothing but utter disappointment. How you can go from scoring 41 points in the first half and not scoring AT LEAST 8 in the second half is beyond us. But, we didn’t lose any money, so that’s a positive I guess? A push feels closer to a loss than a win, can’t convince us otherwise.

Now for the bright spots of the week: college football. The Florida State rally in the second half was incredible to see after they finally managed to stop the run game. Riley Leonard going down was of course a factor in the cooling off of the Blue Devils offense (we wish him a speedy recovery).

Penn State at Ohio State turned out to be exactly the defensive showdown that we anticipated. That Nittany Lions defense deserves a competent offense.

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports leagues (ones that I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order.

NFL

Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-2) (Line: SF -5.5 O/U: 45)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) (Line: JAX -2.5 O/U: 42)

NCAA Football

No. 8 Oregon (6-1) at No. 13 Utah (6-1) (Line: ORE -6.5 O/U: 48)

No. 20 Duke (5-2) at No. 18 Louisville (6-1) (Line: LOU -4.0 O/U: 46.5)

No. 3 Ohio State (7-0) at Wisconsin (5-2) (Line: OSU -14.5 O/U: 43.5)

No. 1 Georgia (7-0) at Florida (5-2) (Line: UGA -14.5 O/U: 47)

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a 10-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (4-3) (Line: BUF -8.5 O/U: 42.5)

Los Angeles Rams (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2) (Line: DAL -6.5 O/U: 45.5)

NCAA Football

No. 21 Tennessee (5-2) at Kentucky (5-2) (Line: TENN -3.5 O/U: 51.5)

Colorado (4-3) at No. 23 Louisville (5-2) (Line: UCLA -17.0 O/U: 63.5)

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers: A few weeks ago, you couldn’t pay us to take the spread against the 49ers. That has changed quickly in the past two weeks. With back-to-back losses, the 49ers look banged up and Brock Purdy looks human. The Bengals are well-rested coming off of a much-needed bye week (especially for Joe Burrow’s calf). I expect them to come out firing.

Bengals +5.5

No. 3 Ohio State at Wisconsin: The Buckeyes seem to find themselves in another defensive matchup this week, facing off against a Wisconsin side ranking in the top 12 defensively. While Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a standout receiver for his team, the Ohio State offense doesn’t seem as exceptional as it has in years past. The Badgers should be able to hold them to a lower-scoring total and score just enough to stay in the game.

Wisconsin +14.5

OnlyOvers

No. 8 Oregon at No. 13 Utah: You know nothing gets us more excited than an offensive shootout, and we are fired up about the potential in this one. At first glance, you may see two solid defenses (Oregon ranked 16th and Utah sitting at 11th defensively) matching up and a relatively low total points line for a college football game between ranked opponents. But, both teams have shown themselves to be susceptible to big plays. Oregon allowed Washington State to score 24 and QB Cam Ward to throw for over 400 yards. We smell a sneaky shootout incoming. Hammer the over.

Over 49

Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears: With the level of defense the Chargers are playing (isn’t Brandon Stately supposed to be a defensive coach?), even a Tyson Bagent lead Bears offense should be able to score a handful of times. This is no longer a classic Chicago Bears defense either, fielding an injured, complacent bottom 5 defense led be another “defensive” head coach in Matt Eberflus. It’s a race to see which head coach gets fired for their incompetence first. Scorefest incoming.

Over 46.5

Favorite of the Week

No. 20 Duke at No. 18 Louisville: Once again taking the favorites against Duke for pretty much the same reasons as last week. The Duke offense is only able to do what it does in the run game if QB Riley Leonard is there to open it up with his passing abilities. With him looking to have re-aggravated his ankle injury, it doesn’t seem likely he will play. As good as the Duke defense has been this year, I can’t see them keeping up with the explosive Louisville offense for all four quarters. And it doesn’t help Duke’s case with this Louisville defense being good at pressuring the quarterback.

Louisville -4

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers: While many people, including myself, didn’t have the Steelers beating the Rams last week, I wouldn’t put too much stock into this year’s Steelers roster. Matt Canada still remains one of the most uncreative offensive coordinators of the season and has one man to thank for last week’s win: George Pickens. We are fully expecting Jacksonville to gameplan for this and continue their winning ways this season.

Jaguars -2.5

Shameful Under

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: Being a student of history, with the time period in question being 2 weeks ago, I expect this to be very similar to the 19-8 finish we saw the last time these two teams matched up. The Chiefs defense is clicking and should hold this Sean Payton offense to single-digits or low double-digits once again.

Under 46

No. 1 Georgia at Florida: Losing Brock Bowers, their leading receiver and one of the best tight end prospects in a long time, for several weeks due to a high ankle sprain will only limit the Georgia offense, which has already looked limited and inexplosive at times this season. The Bulldogs are still proud owners of a top-10 defense, however. Seems to be a recipe for a defensive showdown brewing.

Under 47

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you live every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

Always fade Vegas.

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