Fade Route - Undefeated in Week 13

We had an absolutely massive week with our NFL picks last week, going 4-0 and bringing our overall record for last week to 6-2. Sadly, there are no college football picks this week as we approach our favorite time of the year: Bowl game season. But, the NFL always has our back. Let’s have a week. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Like always, let’s start with the picks that didn’t turn out so well. We knew SMU’s defense was elite, but the way they manhandled Tulane was impressive. Hard to hit an over when there is a freshman quarterback on one side and an offense that can’t put a drive together on the other.

Alabama and Nick Saban beat the Bulldogs simply to cause chaos and wrap up the 4-team CFP era with a year of controversy. Hard not to feel bad for the Florida State Seminoles (although, it’s also hard not to admit that Alabama is the team we would rather watch play). That wraps up our measly 2 losses from last week.

Now for everyone’s (and our) favorite part, the dubs. As we said before, the SMU defense was impenetrable. Mustangs cover with ease and win the conference championship their last year in it. Almost like we called it.

The Pac-12 championship was a real nail-biter when it came to points scored, but we managed to cover by half a point. A win is a win.

Green Bay not only covered the spread, but they made a statement win with Jordan Love at the helm. Love looks incredible and it may be time to admit that we were wrong about him not being the guy. He is most definitely that guy.

The 49ers were close to covering the over by themselves. This Philly defensive unit will need a lot of work if it means to win a Super Bowl this year. The Niners talked smack all week and backed it up.

We’re sorry if you had to watch the Falcons and Jets game if you rode with us on this pick. At least you didn’t have to watch the atrocity that was the Chargers/Patriots game. But, the Falcons came through (or maybe Tim Boyle came through?) and we took the dub.

Last, but not least, was our double rain delay game of the day. Thanks to the delays and Trubisky entering the game at QB for the Steelers, this one was a lock all the way through. Undefeated in the NFL last week. You love to see it.

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports and their respective leagues (ones I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order. All lines are according to when I wrote and published this. Lines are subject to change.

NFL

Buffalo Bills (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) (Line: KC -1.5 O/U: 48.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5) (Line: DAL -3.5 O/U: 51.5)

Detroit Lions (9-3) at Chicago Bears (4-8) (Line: DET -3.5 O/U: 43.5)

NCAA Football

None. Come back next week.

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

New England Patriots (2-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) (Line: PIT -6.0 O/U: 30.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) at Atlanta Falcons (6-6) (Line: ATL -1.5 O/U: 39.5)

Carolina Panthers (1-11) at New Orleans Saints (5-7) (Line: NO -5.0 O/U: 37.5)

NCAA Football

None. Your patience will be rewarded next week.

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: We don’t think anyone could have expected the beatdown the Eagles received last week, but to expect that to happen again, against a team that the Eagles already beat, we don’t see it happening. Philly will come out firing to defend Big Dom’s honor. Birds up in this one.

Eagles +3.5

OnlyOvers

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Two factors went into this game being our OnlyOvers pick this week. The first is that the Detroit Lions offense is one of the most explosive in the league, matched only by the Dolphins and the 49ers. The addition of Jameson Williams as a weapon is almost unfair. The second factor that was a major consideration is how terrible the Lions’ defense, especially their secondary, has been the last few weeks. It seems almost any quarterback can throw all over them. Justin Fields is more than capable of lighting this defense up, as he has done before. It’ll be raining points in the Windy City.

Over 40.5

Favorite of the Week

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: While we believe it’ll be a close one in Chicago (with a whole lot of points), it is still hard to stop this dual-threat Lions’ offense. They’ll outscore you no matter how many points they give up along the way. They’ll squeak out another close one this week.

Lions -3.0

Shameful Under

Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders offense has been struggling to move the ball all year, no matter the competition. They sit at 27th in the league offensively. The quarterback position remains a major question and Josh Jacobs hasn’t been able to replicate the rushing success he manufactured last year. Oh, and Dobbsanity is over, so the Vikings offense isn’t that effective either, ranking 15th in the NFL in total yards. But, they do have a stifling, 8th-ranked defensive unit. Not going to be a very fun game to watch.

Under 40.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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