Fade Route - Live to Fight Another Day

We live to fight another day, finishing with a 4-4 record last week . Unfortunately and sadly, college football season is nearing it’s end, flying by quickly as it always seems to. While we’ve had general success this year at the collegiate level, we refuse to go out without a bang. Let’s savor these final weeks and bowl games. Time to have a week. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Like always, let’s start with the picks that didn’t turn out so well. There have been two team to haunt us all season long. We talked about the Ravens, but there is also the matter of the Chargers. If Brandon Staley makes it to the end of the season, or even next week, with his job intact, the ownership has failed in all of its capacities and should put the team up for sale. Letting Jordan Love drive down the field with such ease is pitiful. “Defensive” coach my ass. Quit calling the plays, you bum.

Another rough week for both of the OnlyOvers picks. The rain was definitely a factor in the Oregon State vs Washington game, causing multiple turnovers and dropped passes throughout the game that doomed the over early on.

Maybe we were wrong about this Raiders defense not being the real deal? Holding the Dolphins high-flying offense to only 20 points was impressive, but terrible for the over. Devon Achane and Tyreek Hill both missing time throughout the game didn’t help our case either.

We honestly looked on track to hit the under in the Wisconsin/Nebraska game, but the Badgers defense let us down and let the Cornhuskers drive down the field for a game-tying field goal to end regulation. Never had a chance once we got to overtime, not unless college football games can end in a tie (which they should never).

Now for everyone’s (and our) favorite part, the dubs. While it was still a battle between the Beavers and Huskies, we were correct in realizing the value of being able to take an undefeated, potential Pac 12 champion-caliber team as an underdog. Penix continues to cash our picks.

The Bulldogs keep on rolling. Rocky Top got real quiet once Carson Beck began driving Georgia down the field constantly. They are the undisputed best team in college football as it stands, in our opinion. Good luck to whoever plays this squad in the playoffs, they’ll need it.

Dobbs may not have played at the same level as his performance against the Saints, but he keeps it a close one and covers. The Dobbs Effect continues.

The Bills almost covered the game total by themselves (the Jets defense didn’t look as dominant as usual), but Zach Wilson being Zach Wilson made sure that that the under was the only right call in this matchup.

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports and their respective leagues (ones that I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order. All lines are according to when I wrote and published this. Lines are subject to change.

NFL

San Francisco 49ers (7-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4) (Line: SF -6.5 O/U: 43.5)

Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) (Line: PHI -3.5 O/U: 48.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) Houston Texans (4-5) (Line: JAX -2.0 O/U: 48.5)

NCAA Football

No. 16 Oregon State (8-3) at No. 6 Oregon (10-1) (Line: ORE -14.0 O/U: 62.5)

No. 2 Ohio State (11-0) at No. 3 Michigan (7-3) (Line: MICH -3.0 O/U: 46.5)

Texas A&M (7-4) at No. 14 LSU (8-3) (Line: LSU -11.5 O/U: 66.5)

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

Los Angeles Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (2-9) (Line: LAR -0.5 O/U: 44.5)

New England Patriots (2-8) at New York Giants (3-8) (Line: NE -3.0 O/U: 33.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) (Line: IND -2.5 O/U: 43.5)

NCAA Football

Texas Tech (6-5) at No. 7 Texas (10-1) (Line: TEX -12.5 O/U: 54.5)

Iowa State (6-5) at No. 19 Kansas State (8-3) (Line: KSU -9.5 O/U: 47.5)

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: Can you name a team on a hotter streak than the Texans? The Stroud to Dell connection is electric and will be a problem for the rest of the season and the future to come. They’ve already pulled off the upset away in Duval this year, no reason they can’t finish the sweep in Houston. CJ Stroud will continue to make his ROTY and MVP case as the playoff push continues.

Texans +2

No. 16 Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon: This matchup reminds me a lot of the Bedlam rivalry between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Rival leaving the conference for a bigger money deal and ending a 120 plus year-old series. The Beavers won’t let the series end in a blowout. This has the makings of a close, one-score, all-out war. The finale of the Civil War is going to be a good one.

Oregon State +14

OnlyOvers

No. 15 Arizona at Arizona State: The Wildcats have been on an absolute tear this season. They enter this week on a 5 game win streak, with 4 of those wins being against, at the time, ranked opponents. The Sun Devils, on the other hand, have had a tough go at it, limping in with a 3-8 record. Being the in-state rivalry it is, ASU should be able to move the ball on Zona and score, but truth be told, we think Arizona is more than capable of dropping a 50-burger on the 99th ranked ASU defense all by themselves.

Over 50

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: We have not learned our lesson apparently when it comes to these two teams. No other pair has contributed more to our loss column this year than the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. But, we keep coming back for more. We refuse to let this season end on this terrible streak. Expect the Ravens to dominate as usual against Staley’s incompetent defense and Justin Herbert to make enough plays to to cover the over.

Over 46.5

Favorite of the Week

No. 15 Arizona at Arizona State: Seems like double dipping in games is becoming a habit over here at the Fade Route. To avoid being repetitive, refer to the above OversOnly pick involving Arizona. Wildcats, very good. Sun Devils, very bad. Zona by a million.

Arizona -11

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: The 49ers look like they are healthy and back in action. Brandon Aiyuk deserves respect as a legitimate WR1 in this league. This offense is finding it’s groove once again and the addition of Chase Young to this Niners pass rush looks deadly. Geno doesn’t stand a chance. Expect this line to be significantly larger in favor of the 49ers when they meet again in Week 14. Take it low while you can.

49ers -6.5

Shameful Under

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: Two rookie quarterbacks meet, both leading sputtering offenses (Titans at 27th and Panthers at 29th in points per game). Usually this would fall in the No-Fly Zone, but there is real value here. We foresee a pile of turnovers and short-drives. Probably a great game to take the field goal prop over in. Hate that we’re going to have to watch this game, but you do what you have to. Hammer the under.

Under 36.5

No. 5 Florida State at Florida: After two unfortunate injuries involving the starting quarterbacks of both teams, this in-state rivalry has turned into the Backup Bowl. Florida State sports a top-15 defensive unit and look to keep their playoff hopes alive. We’re anticipating a cautious game, limiting turnovers and conservative play-calling. Take the under.

Under 50.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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