Fade Route - High Standards

We didn’t finish in the red last week (4-4), so that’s a positive. But, we hold ourselves to a higher standard than that. The work has been put in, and the picks have arrived. Let’s have a week. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Like always, let’s start with the picks that didn’t turn out so well. We can’t catch a break when betting Ravens games. We bet against them twice and they blow out both the Seahawks and the Lions. We realize it’s a mistake betting against the Ravens and take them against the Browns. After playing with a lead for the entirety of the game, they implode in spectacular fashion and we lose yet another pick involving the Ravens. Tough scenes.

Both of the OnlyOvers picks, our favorite category, were near misses. Drew Allar has reverted to his mediocre ways and, has once again, let down an imposing Nittany Lions defense. They deserve better. A lot of points were left on the table in the highly anticipated Big-10 matchup.

The other OnlyOver to fail us: the 49ers at the Jaguars. The Jacksonville Jaguars are officially on fraud alert. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t seem to have taken that step to be a top 10 quarterback this season. He is quickly losing his footing as the best signal-caller in the AFC South to newcomer CJ Stroud.

It was a slightly embarrassing display from the Steelers’ defense last week, somehow allowing Jordan Love to throw for nearly 300 yards and 2 TDs. Under was a bust, and the Steelers somehow manage to win another football game.

Now for everyone’s favorite part, the dubs. Alabama football isn’t back, it never left. Milroe looks fantastic as a dual-threat QB for the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban has coached his way out of what was looking to be an inconceivable off-year for Alabama. Kentucky never stood a chance.

We hope you heeded our warning on the USC/Oregon game being a trap. The Oregon defensive front dominated the USC offensive line, as we predicted, and put Caleb Williams under pressure all night. Shameful Under = Shameful Win.

The Dobbs Effect. Hard not to love it and root for it. Dobbs’ first half against the Saints was one of the best half performances we have seen this year. We are fully on the Dobbs train.

Our final win last week came in the Florida State & Miami rivalry game. Miami showed a ton of heart and battle it out with their in-state rival till the final moments of the game. Another classic duel in the series is in the books. The Hurricanes cover, easily.

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports and their respective leagues (ones that I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order. All lines are according to when I wrote and published this. Lines are subject to change.

NFL

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3) (Line: BAL -3.5 O/U: 45.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) (Line: KC -2.5 O/U: 45.5)

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) Denver Broncos (4-5) (Line: DEN -2.5 O/U: 42.5)

NCAA Football

No. 5 Washington (10-0) at No. 11 Oregon State (8-2) (Line: ORST -2.5 O/U: 63.5)

No. 22 Utah (7-3) at No. 17 Arizona (7-3) (Line: ARI -1.0 O/U: 44.5)

No. 1 Georgia (10-0) at No. 18 Tennessee (7-3) (Line: UGA -10.0 O/U: 58.5)

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Los Angeles Rams (3-6) (Line: SEA -1.0 O/U: 46.5)

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (7-2) (Line: DET -8.0 O/U: 74.5)

New York Giants (2-8) at Washington Commanders (4-6) (Line: WASH -8.5 O/U: 37.5)

NCAA Football

No. 10 Louisville (9-1) at Miami (6-4) (Line: MIA -0.5 O/U: 46.5)

Illinois (5-5) at No. 16 Iowa (8-2) (Line: IOWA -3.0 O/U: 30.5)

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos: Dobbsanity continues. We are all in on it. We saw what he managed to accomplish with no knowledge of the playbook, and now we have seen one of the best quarterback performances in a half this season in the first half against the Saints. Denver’s defense has improved dramatically, but with the return of Justin Jefferson and the Vikings in excellent form, I expect Dobbs to come through once again. Skol, Vikings.

Vikings +2.5

No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State: Washington’s defensive unit has been lackluster (ranked 50th nationally) in comparison to their high-flying offense (ranked 5th nationally). Their poor defensive play is the only reason they are an underdog here. Oregon State’s 15th ranked offense will not have trouble scoring. But, in a shootout, it’s hard to compete with Michael Penix Jr, just ask USC and Caleb Williams. You’re not going to get many opportunities to take the Huskies as an underdog for the remainder of season. Other than the Pac 12 championship game, but that’s a discussion for another week.

Washington +2.5

OnlyOvers

No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State:: This is a Fade Route first: we are double-dipping in a game. Like we mentioned above, Washington hasn’t been able to stop teams from scoring. Just last week, they let the 80th ranked Utah offense drop 28 points. Not hard to expect the Beavers 15th ranked unit do a whole lot better than that. It’s teeing up to be another legendary Pac 12 matchup. Scorefest of the week.

Over 63.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins: The Antonio Pierce era may have begun in a great fashion thanks to a couple dominant defensive performances, but we can’t ignore the offenses involved. Neither the Giants or the Jets have had much success on the attacking side of the ball, while the Dolphins have had enough for all 3 franchises. This will be the first test for Pierce and his Raiders, and we don’t expect them to ace it.

Over 47.5

Favorite of the Week

No. 1 Georgia at No. 18 Tennessee: Georgia is the number one team in the country. Deservedly so. They have been a force to be reckoned with — on both sides of the ball. Brock Bowers and this Bulldogs offense has been heating up in recent weeks, and will be a lot for the Volunteers to handle. Expect an absolute massacre. A 10 point spread is a bit generous.

Georgia -10

Los Angeles Chargers at Green bay Packers: The Bolts have been entirely unimpressive and underperforming in comparison to how they were viewed pre-season. The Chargers were viewed as a potential divisional challenger to the Chiefs. Notwithstanding, this Bolts team is much more capable than the Jordan Love-headed Packers. Last week, it was a poor performance by the Steelers defense, not a great performance from Love. If Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren found success in the ground game against Green Bay, Austin Ekeler is going to have a field day.

Chargers -3

Shameful Under

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: A turnover-heavy Bills offense against an iron-clad Jets defense. Zach Wilson and the remnants of his offensive line against an improving Bills defense. Does this sound like a game with a lot of touchdowns and scoring? Hammer the under.

Under 39.5

Wisconsin at Nebraska: A meeting between two programs in the middle of an extended rebuild. Neither has been able to find much success on the scoring side of the game, sitting at 105th and 122nd in the nation in points per game, respectively. Yikes. What they do bring to the table, is their proud histories defensively, which continues to the present day. Wisconsin ranks 26th in the nation in points per game allowed; Nebraska at 19th. Two old-school defenses launching them at each other. Taking the under. Every. Single Time.

Under 36.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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