Fade Route - We're Going to be Alright

We went back to the winning culture we strived for last week, finishing with a positive 5-3 record. We’re going to be alright. It’s college football championship week, marking the end of regular season play and getting us ready for bowl game season. Let’s have a week. 🫡

Last Week Recap

Like always, let’s start with the picks that didn’t turn out so well. So it turns out, when the only two teams that have not made you money this season play each other, it is not wise to bet on that game. Who would’ve known? Two teams that play to the level of their competitors and find ways to let the other team stay in the game. Avoiding the Chargers and Ravens like the plague from here on out.

If only the Texans had Jake Elliott as their kicker. They may have had a chance to win it in overtime. Officiating was all over the place in that matchup as well. It is what it is. Stroud still looks incredibly poised for a rookie.

Oregon is as dominant as ever. Expecting them to win the Pac-12 title with ease. As for Oregon State, not only did they lose the final Civil War game, but they also lost their head coach to Michigan State. Tough day to be a Beaver fan.

Now for everyone’s (and our) favorite part, the dubs. Wildcats by a million. That is what we said last week, and that is exactly what happened. Over obliterated. Spread annihilated. Too easy.

The Backup Bowl went as we expected as well, with Florida State winning a defensive game riddled with field goals and punts. Under was always the play.

The Panthers and Titans didn’t put up much of an offensive display in another poor showing for Bryce Young and that offense. Frank Reich’s play-calling didn’t help the rookie quarterback’s day out either. Defenses did enough to secure the under.

We told you last week that you wouldn’t have a chance at getting the 49ers as a 6.5-point favorite against the Seahawks again. Should’ve been much higher. We’re not complaining, though. Easy win.

Isn’t it nice when the win section is longer than the loss one?

On to this week’s action.

Games of the Week

This section is dedicated to games across all major sports and their respective leagues (ones I care about, at least) that I think are worth watching and betting on, in no particular order. All lines are according to when I wrote and published this. Lines are subject to change.

NFL

San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) (Line: SF -3.0 O/U: 46.5)

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Houston Texans (6-5) (Line: HOU -3.5 O/U: 47.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-6) (Line: KC -6.5 O/U: 42.5)

NCAA Football

No. 5 Oregon (11-1) at No. 3 Washington (12-0) (Line: ORE -9.5 O/U: 66.5)

No. 1 Georgia (12-0) at No. 8 Alabama (11-1) (Line: UGA -5.5 O/U: 54.5)

SMU (10-2) at No. 22 Tulane (8-3) (Line: TULN -3.5 O/U: 47.5)

No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3) at No. 7 Texas (11-1) (Line: TEX -15.5 O/U: 54.5)

No. 14 Louisville (10-2) at No. 4 Florida State (8-3) (Line: FSU -2.5 O/U: 47.5)

No-Fly Zones

The games in this section are ones that I would not touch with a ten-foot pole. Either due to unpredictable teams, injuries, or suspicious lines, every game listed below I would avoid at all costs. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

NFL

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at New England Patriots (2-9) (Line: LAC -6.0 O/U: 40.5)

Detroit Lions (8-3) at New Orleans Saints (5-6) (Line: DET -4.0 O/U: 45.5)

Carolina Panthers (1-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) (Line: TB -5.0 O/U: 38.5)

NCAA Football

None. Everything is fair game during Championship week and Bowl season.

This Week’s Picks

Dog of the Week

SMU at No. 22 Tulane: SMU, their final year in the American Athletic Conference, has gone through a resurgence as a great football program. The firepower of their 4th in the nation offensive unit is a sight to behold. Not to discredit their defense either, which is in the top 15 nationally. Tulane is going to have a tough time keeping up on both sides of the ball. The Mustangs will leave the conference as champions and will hope to continue building the program back to a powerhouse in the ACC.

SMU +3.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers: We may have been wrong about Jordan Love not being the answer in Green Bay. The Utah State product may have finally found his groove alongside his young receiving core, moving the offense efficiently down the field. Kansas City, on the other hand, continues to struggle offensively against a competent defense, which Green Bay has. Green Bay should be able to contain the run enough to limit the damage the Chiefs’ struggling receiver core can inflict. It’s going to be a close one in Lambeau.

Packers +6.5

OnlyOvers

SMU at No. 22 Tulane: Mustangs will likely score 7 touchdowns by themselves. Hard to stop that offensive powerhouse. Many have tried. Many have failed. This is your weekly Scorefest alert.

Over 47.5

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: A rematch of the NFC Championship game from last year. With a much healthier 49ers offense. It should come as no surprise that both these offenses are near the top of the league in scoring (5th and 6th, respectively). Both run the ball effectively and have deep play threats littered across the roster. Can we use a Scorefest alert twice in one week? We’re going to regardless. Scorefest. Points galore.

Over 46.5

Favorite of the Week

No. 1 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama: Even in a so-called “off-year” for Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, they manage to find themselves with only 1 loss and in the SEC Championship game. But, the hunt for another national title ends this year for Bama. Georgia will not let you stay in the game the way that Auburn allowed you to. They will come after you and punish you, on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs will close the year out with an emphatic victory over Alabama on the way to the playoffs.

Georgia -5.5

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets. There are only two things that you need to know for this game. The first is that Tim Boyle is starting, once again, for the Jets (still thinking about that Aail Mary that ended in a Pick-6). Secondly, Bijan Robinson is getting the touches he deserves and scoring touchdowns effortlessly. Case closed. Falcons and it’s not even close.

Falcons -3.0

Shameful Under

No. 5 Oregon at No. 3 Washington: While you may have expected to see this game in the OnlyOvers section, we are here to tell you that this matchup will be a lot different from the last time these two Pac-12 contenders met. The Ducks’ defense has improved week after week to land at 7th in the nation in points per game allowed. Penix and the Huskies’ offense hasn’t had the same bite to it as they did early in the season. It is visibly noticeable in watching the games and merely comparing scoreboards. This game isn’t cracking 60 points combined.

Under 65.5

Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers: If the Cardinals struggled to barely score 14 points against the Rams, they are in for a rude awakening against the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh is one of the hardest places to take a win away from in the league. On the other side, Matt Canada has been fired and the Steelers’ offense is starting to gain some more traction and yardage. But, that being said, they still only managed to score 16 against the Bengals (given, they have a good defense). This offense is still a work in progress. Not going to be a very exciting game.

Under 41.5

Records

Appreciate you reading and supporting Fade Route this week. We’ll be coming at you every Thursday morning with some fresh takes and reliable picks.

As always, fade Vegas.

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